In 4Q22, the BM Group lowered its estimate of cost of credit holidays by PLN99 million (pre-tax; PLN
80 million after tax) based on effective take-up in 2H22 and the expected participation rate of eligible
borrowers in 2023.
As a result, in 2022 overall, the cost of credit holidays, recognised in interest income, burdened the
results by PLN1,324 million pre-tax/PLN 1,073 million after tax.
IPS costs
In June 2022, Bank Millennium along with seven other large Polish commercial banks established an
institutional protection scheme (‘IPS’). The Bank became an 8.5% shareholder in the entity managing
the scheme. In 2Q22 and 3Q22 it paid in contributions totalling PLN276 million pre-tax (PLN 224 million
post tax). As a result of the establishment of the IPS, the Bank Guarantee Fund (‘BGF’) suspended
deposit guarantee funds fees for 2Q22-4Q22. Additionally, it is expected that no contributions to
deposit guarantee fund will be required in 2023.
Capital ratios recovered from a temporary breach of minimum required levels
The Bank’s consolidated and solo capital ratios dropped below minimum required levels in July 2022,
following the upfront recognition in the P&L of the above mentioned estimated cost of credit holidays.
The Bank pre-emptively launched recovery plan in July 2022, while in August it filed a capital
protection to Polish Financial Supervision Authority (‘PFSA’) plan as required by the regulations
(details in separate section later in this report).
Organic capital protection and replenishment initiatives introduced by the Bank as a part of the above
mentioned plans combined with the improving profitability (positive net result in 4Q22) bore fruits
and capital ratios returned clearly above the required minimum required levels already in 4Q22.
Consolidated TCR increased to 14.4% at YE22 from 12.4% at the end of September’22, while
consolidated T1 ratio to 11.3% from 9.4% respectively. This was a an outcome of a combination of
higher regulatory capital (positive net result in 4Q22, improved valuation of bond portfolio) with lower
RWAs and consequently lower capital requirement. The latter was chiefly an outcome of reduction of
the loan portfolio (i.a. repayments/write-offs/disposals of some credit exposures) and a securitisation
transaction.
At the same time, minimum required ratios for Bank Millennium were lowered by the regulator during
4Q22, as a result of the reduction of the P2R buffer in December’22. Consolidated minimum required
TCR ratio stood at 12.7% at YE22, while consolidated T1 ratio at 10.2%.
More details on the capital ratios are presented in a separate section in this report
Quarterly trends/operating dynamics
Following the pandemic year 2020 and year 2021 which will be remembered as a year of significant
economic volatility, 2022 proved to be an even more challenging one with the outbreak of war in
Ukraine in February setting off an avalanche of global consequences. Of these, a dramatic increase
of uncertainty among consumers and corporates, global sell-off of most of assets, soaring inflation
and in response an unprecedentedly quick and abrupt monetary tightening by central banks, were
probably key from the banks’ perspective in 1H22. 2H22 was not easy either as the economies (and
banks in tandem), in turn, grappled with consequences of energy crisis, further growth in inflation
(and as a result worsening consumer confidence) and, last but not least, the interference of
increasingly interventionistic governments.
While this incredibly volatile background did adversely impact business conditions, results of Bank
Millennium and its peers largely defied the gravity. Bar the impact of extraordinary elements such as
contributions to IPS and credit holidays as well as external factors such as growing number of claims
from FX-mortgage borrowers (and consequently increasing legal risk provisions at banks), the results
were in a strong upward trend.
This was chiefly due to the fast increasing interest rates which provided fuel to strong improvement
of NIM and strong growth of NII. 2022 brought an increase of Poland’s base interest rate by 500bps in
eight moves, adding to 125bps rate hikes in 2H21. WIBOR 3M reached its peak of 7.5% in October 2022
compared to YE21 level of just above 2.5%. BM Group’s NII grew 54% y/y in 1Q22, 80% in 2Q22, 90% in
3Q22 (excluding cost of credit holidays) and 63% in 4Q22 with full year 2022 bringing 72% y/y growth
(before cost of credit holidays). This contrasted with decelerating loan growth, undermined, among
others, by the fast decelerating origination of PLN mortgages (down 10% y/y in 1Q22 and down 67% in