83
2022 saw delivery of 236,800 sq m of new office space, of which only 8,700 sq m was
completed in Q4. The biggest stock increases were recorded in CBD (99,100 sq m), City
Centre (88,700 sq m) and Mokotów (32,000 sq m). During the year a few flagship projects
were completed, including Varso Tower (63,800 sq m) and Forest Tower (51,500 sq m) both
by HB Reavis, and SkySawa (31,300 sq m) by PHN. In recent years, annual new supply has
stood at record levels of 200,000-300,000 sq m. This trend will be reversed over the next two
years. In line with our forecast, new office buildings planned for delivery in 2023 will account
for 74,000 sq m and 82,000 sq m in 2024.
Despite the market turmoil, leasing activity in 2022 was one of the strongest performances on
record. Full-year take-up amounted to 860,000 sq m, which is similar to the record years of
2018-2019. In 2022, the market witnessed the completions of a few spectacular lease
agreements > 20,000 sq m. Activity was led by companies in the financial sector, namely PKO
BP in SkySawa (pre-let, 31,300 sq m), Pekao S.A. in Forest Tower (pre-let, 30,000 sq m) and
Grupa ING in Plac Unii (renegotiation & expansion, 23,500 sq m).
At the end of December 2022, the vacancy rate stood at 11.6% (10.5% in the central zones
and 12.4% outside the centre), a decrease of 1.1 p.p. y-o-y and 0.6 p.p. on the previous
quarter, respectively. The coming quarters will see a steady decrease in office space
availability in the central zones. The vacancy rate in non-central locations will also experience
a similar trend, albeit at a slower rate.
Q4 2022 recorded no change in rents for prime office properties located in the central zones.
At the end of December, these rents ranged from € 18 to € 26/sq m/month. Rents outside the
city centre remained relatively stable at € 11-17/sq m/month. Upward pressure on prime rents
will persist over the coming months, especially across the central zones. Currently, mainly due
to higher fit-out costs, tenants are predominantly signing longer-term contracts (i.e. for at least
seven years) in new buildings. Shorter contracts (three to five years) can still be concluded in
older office buildings. Currently, the key element of each lease agreement is flexibility in terms
of potential space expansion or reduction. Companies want to ensure that they will be able to
swiftly adjust their office requirements in response to risks related to hybrid work and volatile
economic conditions.
In 2023, both tenants and landlords will have to face increasing costs of space maintenance.
Soaring energy prices and labour costs will translate into much higher service charges across
all asset types. According to a preliminary assessment, the rise in service charges y/y will be
30% on average (though in some cases, it may exceed 60%).
Regional cities Poland
After a gentle slowdown in tenant activity in Q3, the last three months of 2022 again saw a
recovery on the corporate side. As a result, the volume of demand on an annual basis
amounted to more than 623,200 sqm (+6% y-o-y). This shows that there is not year-on-year
decline in office interest. The forecasted total tenant activity for the next few years may remain
at a similar level. The so-called "flight to quality" is evident in both the capital and regional
markets. Demand for offices remains largely generated by tenant relocations to better quality
office buildings. In 2022, more than 50% of the volume of tenant activity was signed in buildings
up to five years old, of which 10% were the pre-lets. The largest deals concluded in 2022 are
the renegotiation of a confidential tenant in Green Day in Wroclaw for 14,800 sqm, the