For most of 2023, the National Bank of Poland maintained key interest rates at the highest level since
2002. However, in September last year, the Monetary Policy Council made a sudden turn in monetary
policy and cut interest rates by 75 basis points and in October by another 25 basis points. As a result,
the reference interest rate of the National Bank of Poland stood at 5.75%. After parliamentary
elections in October, in which the opposition took power, the Monetary Policy Council tightened its
bias and communicated its willingness to stabilise the parameters of monetary policy.
In 2023 deposits in the banking sector were growing at a solid pace and in December their nominal
value was by PLN 172.5 billion higher, i.e. 9.9%, compared to December 2022. Nevertheless, the ratio
of deposits to the GDP decreased from 57.1% in 2022 to estimated 56.6% in 2023. Deposits in the
household sector grew the most and its annual dynamics accelerated to 11.2% y/y from 3.2% y/y in
December 2022. The nominal volume of households’ deposits increased by as much as PLN 124 billion
during 2023, compared to an increase of PLN 34 billion a year earlier. Conducive to households'
deposits were high nominal interest rates and solid wage growth. In 4Q 2023 the growth of households’
deposits slowed down slightly, which can be associated with reviving consumption. Growth of deposits
in corporate sector slowed down to 7.5% y/y in 2023 from 9.6% in 2022. In the environment of high
interest rates and low economic growth, credit creation in the economy was low, especially in the
first half of 2023. In second half of the year lending activity recovered markedly, especially in the
households’ segment. In 4Q 2023, the value of newly granted loans to households amounted to PLN
57.8 billion, reaching the highest value in the history of available data. This was mainly the result of
a strong rebound in mortgage loans and huge interest in the government's "Safe Loan 2%" programme.
A revival, albeit on a smaller scale, was observed in the consumer credit segment. Demand for credit
from companies was subdued during whole 2023.
In the Bank's opinion, economic activity in Poland will recover and in 2024 the economic growth will
accelerate to 2.9% y/y. In our opinion, the main driver of the economy will be consumer demand,
which will be supported by low unemployment, still strongly growing wages, the dynamics of which
will be underpinned by a strong increase in the minimum wage, as well as the government's declared
increases in the salaries of teachers and employees in the public sector. Additional support for
households’ incomes will be provided by the payment of social transfers from the budget. On the
other hand, the dynamics of investments in fixed assets is expected to slow down, among others due
to the end of the old perspective of the European Union budget and the slow utilization of funds from
the new EU budget. In the Bank's view, the risks to the GDP growth forecast presented above are
skewed to upside, mainly due to a possible faster rebound in consumer demand. In the Bank's opinion,
there is only a limited space for monetary policy easing in 2024. Especially that the Monetary Policy
Council communicates its willingness to stabilise interest rates in the coming months. Expansionary
fiscal policy, low unemployment, and relatively high wage growth will delay the return of inflation to
the central bank's target, and thus limit the space for interest rate cuts. The expected easing of
monetary policy by the Fed and the European Central Bank may create room for a slight reduction of
interest rates in Poland without negative pressure on the zloty. Given the uncertainty surrounding the
inflation outlook, these reductions should be carried out with caution.
4.2. FACTORS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE ECONOMY AND BANK
MILLENNIUM GROUP
The summary list below presents the most important negative risk factors for Bank Millennium Group
related to the macroeconomic situation in 2024-2025.
• The geopolitical situation in the world, including, among others, the possibility of an
escalation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine and the escalation of tensions in the
Middle East and Asia. This would potentially result in increased uncertainty and risk aversion,
as well as increased disruptions in supply chains. As a consequence, commodity prices on
international markets would rise, and the zloty would weaken, which would translate into an
increase in inflation in Poland, weaker GDP growth and an increase in unemployment.
• Worse than assumed economic situation in Poland's trading partners, in particular a deeper
and longer recession in Germany than currently assumed. This would have a negative impact
on the financial results of Polish enterprises, which could potentially result in a decrease in